Development and external validation study of a melanoma risk prediction model incorporating clinically assessed naevi and solar lentigines.

BACKGROUND: Melanoma risk prediction models could be useful for matching preventive interventions to patients' risk. OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a model for incident first-primary cutaneous melanoma using clinically assessed risk factors. METHODS: We used unconditional logistic regression with backward selection from the Australian Melanoma Family Study (461 cases and 329 controls) in which age, sex and city of recruitment were kept in each step, and we externally validated it using the Leeds Melanoma Case-Control Study (960 cases and 513 controls). Candidate predictors included clinically assessed whole-body naevi and solar lentigines, and self-assessed pigmentation phenotype, sun exposure, family history and history of keratinocyte cancer. We evaluated the predictive strength and discrimination of the model risk factors using odds per age- and sex-adjusted SD (OPERA) and the area under curve (AUC), and calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. RESULTS: The final model included the number of naevi ≥ 2 mm in diameter on the whole body, solar lentigines on the upper back (a six-level scale), hair colour at age 18 years and personal history of keratinocyte cancer. Naevi was the strongest risk factor; the OPERA was 3·51 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2·71-4·54] in the Australian study and 2·56 (95% CI 2·23-2·95) in the Leeds study. The AUC was 0·79 (95% CI 0·76-0·83) in the Australian study and 0·73 (95% CI 0·70-0·75) in the Leeds study. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test P-value was 0·30 in the Australian study and < 0·001 in the Leeds study. CONCLUSIONS: This model had good discrimination and could be used by clinicians to stratify patients by melanoma risk for the targeting of preventive interventions. What's already known about this topic? Melanoma risk prediction models may be useful in prevention by tailoring interventions to personalized risk levels. For reasons of feasibility, time and cost many melanoma prediction models use self-assessed risk factors. However, individuals tend to underestimate their naevus numbers. What does this study add? We present a melanoma risk prediction model, which includes clinically-assessed whole-body naevi and solar lentigines, and self-assessed risk factors including pigmentation phenotype and history of keratinocyte cancer. This model performs well on discrimination, the model's ability to distinguish between individuals with and without melanoma, and may assist clinicians to stratify patients by melanoma risk for targeted preventive interventions.

Associations of pigmentary and naevus phenotype with melanoma risk in two populations with comparable ancestry but contrasting levels of ambient sun exposure.

BACKGROUND: People at high risk of developing melanoma are usually identified by pigmentary and naevus phenotypes. OBJECTIVE: We examined whether associations of these phenotypes with melanoma risk differed by ambient sun exposure or participant characteristics in two population-based, case-control studies with comparable ancestry but different ambient sun exposure. METHODS: Data were analysed from 616 cases and 496 controls from the Australian Melanoma Family Study and 2012 cases and 504 controls from the Leeds (UK) case-control study. Questionnaire, interview and dermatological skin examination data were collected using the same measurement protocols. Relative risks were estimated as odds ratios using unconditional logistic regression, adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: Hair and skin colour were the strongest pigmentary phenotype risk factors. All associations of pigmentary phenotype with melanoma risk were similar across countries. The median number of clinically assessed naevi was approximately three times higher in Australia than Leeds, but the relative risks for melanoma associated with each additional common or dysplastic naevus were higher for Leeds than Australia, especially for naevi on the upper and lower limbs. Higher naevus counts on the head and neck were associated with a stronger relative risk for melanoma for women than men. The two countries had similar relative risks for melanoma based on self-reported naevus density categories, but personal perceptions of naevus number differed by country. There was no consistent evidence of interactions between phenotypes on risk. CONCLUSIONS: Classifying people at high risk of melanoma based on their number of naevi should ideally take into account their country of residence, type of counts (clinical or self-reported), body site on which the naevus counts are measured and sex. The presence of naevi may be a stronger indicator of a genetic predisposition in the UK than in Australia based on less opportunity for sun exposure to influence naevus development.

Predictors and consequences of health anxiety symptoms: a novel twin modeling study.

OBJECTIVE: The question of how to best conceptualize health anxiety (HA) from a diagnostic and etiological perspective remains debated. The aim was to examine the relationship between HA and the symptoms of anxiety and obsessive-compulsive-related disorders in a normative twin population. METHOD: Four hundred and ninety-six monozygotic adult twin pairs from the Australian Twin Registry participated in the study (age, 34.4 ± 7.72 years; 59% females). Validated scales were used to assess each domain. We applied a twin regression methodology-ICE FALCON-to determine whether there was evidence consistent with 'causal' relationships between HA and other symptoms by fitting and comparing model estimates. RESULTS: Estimates were consistent with higher levels of obsessing ('unwanted thoughts') (P = 0.008), social anxiety (P = 0.03), and body dysmorphic symptoms (P = 0.008) causing higher levels of HA symptoms, and with higher levels of HA symptoms causing higher levels of physical/somatic anxiety symptoms (P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: Obsessional thoughts, body dysmorphic concerns, and social anxiety symptoms may have a causal influence on HA. To report physical/somatic anxiety appears to be a consequence of the underlying presence of HA-related fears. Should our results be confirmed by longitudinal studies, the evaluation and treatment of HA may benefit from the consideration of these identified risk factors.

Novel associations between blood DNA methylation and body mass index in middle-aged and older adults.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: There is increasing evidence of a relationship between blood DNA methylation and body mass index (BMI). We aimed to assess associations of BMI with individual methylation measures (CpGs) through a cross-sectional genome-wide DNA methylation association study and a longitudinal analysis of repeated measurements over time. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Using the Illumina Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChip, DNA methylation measures were determined in baseline peripheral blood samples from 5361 adults recruited to the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS) and selected for nested case-control studies, 2586 because they were subsequently diagnosed with cancer (cases) and 2775 as controls. For a subset of 1088 controls, these measures were repeated using blood samples collected at wave 2 follow-up, a median of 11 years later; weight was measured at both time points. Associations between BMI and blood DNA methylation were assessed using linear mixed-effects regression models adjusted for batch effects and potential confounders. These were applied to cases and controls separately, with results combined through fixed-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Cross-sectional analysis identified 310 CpGs associated with BMI with P<1.0 × 10-7, 225 of which had not been reported previously. Of these 225 novel associations, 172 were replicated (P<0.05) using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. We also replicated using MCCS data (P<0.05) 335 of 392 associations previously reported with P<1.0 × 10-7, including 60 that had not been replicated before. Associations between change in BMI and change in methylation were observed for 34 of the 310 strongest signals in our cross-sectional analysis, including 7 that had not been replicated using the ARIC study. CONCLUSIONS: Together, these findings suggest that BMI is associated with blood DNA methylation at a large number of CpGs across the genome, several of which are located in or near genes involved in ATP-binding cassette transportation, tumour necrosis factor signalling, insulin resistance and lipid metabolism.

Risk of uterine cancer for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers.

BACKGROUND: Whether BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers have a clinically relevant elevated risk of uterine cancer has implications for risk-reducing surgery. AIM: This multicentre, prospective cohort study assessed uterine cancer risk for mutation carriers compared with the general population. METHODS: Eligible mutation carriers were enrolled in the Kathleen Cuningham Foundation Consortium for Research into Familial Breast Cancer (kConFab) cohort study, had a uterus present and no history of uterine cancer at cohort entry. Epidemiological, lifestyle and clinical data were collected at cohort entry and updated three-yearly. Cancer events were verified using pathology reports. Follow-up was censored at death or last contact. Relative risk of uterine cancer was estimated using the standardised incidence ratio (SIR), with the expected number of cases determined using population-based data for Australia. RESULTS: Of 1,111 mutation carriers in kConFab, 283 were excluded due to prior hysterectomy (N = 278), prior uterine cancer (N = 2) or being non-residents (N = 3). After a median follow-up of 9.0 years, five incident uterine cancers were reported in the 828 eligible women (419 had prior breast cancer and 160 had prior tamoxifen use), compared to 2.04 expected (SIR = 2.45; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.80-5.72; P = 0.11). In 438 BRCA1 mutation carriers and 390 BRCA2 mutation carriers, three and two incident cases of uterine cancer were reported, respectively, compared to 1.04 expected (SIR = 2.87; 95% CI: 0.59-8.43; P = 0.18) and 0.99 expected (SIR = 2.01; 95% CI: 0.24-7.30; P = 0.52), respectively. All cases were endometrioid subtype, International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics stage I-II disease. No serous uterine cancers were reported. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are consistent with those from most other reports and do not support routine risk-reducing hysterectomy for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers.

Total and beverage-specific alcohol intake and the risk of aggressive prostate cancer: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Ethanol in alcoholic beverages is a known carcinogen, but its association with aggressive prostate cancer (APC) is uncertain. Recent studies have shown a modest increase in risk of APC associated with heavy alcohol intake while association for beverage types remain inconsistent. METHODS: Using a case-control design and self-administered questionnaire, we examined the association between APC (high grade and/or advanced stage) and frequency and quantity of alcohol intake 2 years prior to enrolment. Furthermore, we delineated the relationships for beverage-specific intakes of beer, red wine, white wine and spirits. RESULTS: The study included 1282 APC cases and 951 controls. Beer intake frequency of ⩾5 days per week was associated with increased risk compared with no beer intake (odds ratio=1.66, 95% confidence interval: 1.12-2.48) whereas wine was protective at all frequencies of consumption compared with those with no wine intake. For every 10 g per week ethanol intake from beer increase, the odds of advanced PC rose by 3% (OR=1.03, 95% CI: 1.02-1.05). No such increased risk was observed for red or white wine while a marginal dose-response relationship was found for spirits (OR=1.03, 95% CI: 0.99-1.07). CONCLUSIONS: Heavy beer and possibly spirits consumption is associated with increased risk while no dose-response relationship was found for red or white wine. Wine drinkers at all frequencies have a decreased risk of APC compared with those who did not drink wine.

Improved quality of risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy in Australasian women at high risk of pelvic serous cancer.

OBJECTIVES: The quality of risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) performed in Australasian women was previously reported to be suboptimal. Here we describe the quality of RRSO performed since 2008 in women enrolled in the same cohort and determine whether it has improved. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study of women at high risk of pelvic serous cancer (PSC) in kConFab. Eligible women had RRSO between 2008 and 2014 and their RRSO surgical and pathology reports were reviewed. "Adequate" surgery and pathology were defined as complete removal and paraffin embedding of all ovarian and extra-uterine fallopian tube tissue, respectively. Associations between clinical factors and "adequate" pathology were assessed using logistic regression. Data were compared with published cohort data on RRSO performed prior to 2008 using Chi square test. RESULTS: Of 164 contemporary RRSOs performed in 78 centres, 158/159 (99%) had "adequate" surgery and 108/164 (66%) had "adequate" pathology. Surgery performed by a gynaecologic oncologist rather than a general gynaecologist [OR 8.2, 95%CI (3.6-20.4), p < 0.001], surgery without concurrent hysterectomy [OR 2.5, 95%CI (1.1-6.0), p = 0.03], more recent year of surgery [OR 1.4, 95%CI (1.1-1.8), p = 0.02], and clinical notation that indicated high risk [OR 19.4, 95%CI (3.1-385), p = 0.008] were independently associated with "adequate" pathology. Both surgery and pathology were significantly more likely to be "adequate" (p < 0.001) in this contemporary sample. CONCLUSION: The quality of RRSOs has significantly improved since our last report. Surgery by a gynaecologic oncologist who informs the pathologist that the woman is at high risk for PSC is associated with optimal RRSO pathology.

Is this back pain killing me? All-cause and cardiovascular-specific mortality in older Danish twins with spinal pain.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined the potentially reduced life expectancy associated with spinal pain (i.e. low back and neck pain) in an ageing population, particularly after controlling for familial factors, including genetics. METHODS: We investigated whether spinal pain increased the rate of all-cause and disease-specific cardiovascular mortality in older Danish twins aged ≥70 years. Data from 4391 participants collected at baseline were linked with the Danish Cause of Death Registry with the study ending on 31 December 2014. Two crude and adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression analyses determined the rate of all-cause and disease-specific cardiovascular mortality by baseline spinal pain exposure; unpaired (total sample analysis) and twin pair (intra-pair analysis). Analyses were also adjusted for confounders; baseline physical functional ability and depressive symptoms. Competing risk regression models determined the rate of cardiovascular mortality, adjusting for similar confounders and using the total sample only. RESULTS: Spinal pain was associated with an increased rate of all-cause mortality, hazard ratio (HR): 1.13 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06-1.21]. There was no association between spinal pain and cardiovascular disease mortality, sub-distribution hazard ratio (SHR): 1.08 [95% CI 0.96-1.21]. After adjusting for confounders (physical functional ability and depressive symptoms), the association became non-significant. All intra-pair analyses were statistically non-significant, although greater in magnitude for monozygotic twins. CONCLUSIONS: Older people reporting spinal pain have 13% increased risk of mortality per years lived but the connection is not causal. We found no association between spinal pain and cardiovascular-specific mortality. The influence of shared familial factors is unlikely. SIGNIFICANCE: Older people reporting spinal pain have 13% increased risk of mortality per year lived. However, this association is not likely to be causal, with the relevant confounders contributing to this relationship. Thus, pain in the spine may be part of a pattern of poor health, which increases mortality risk in the older population.

The effects of stress-tension on depression and anxiety symptoms: evidence from a novel twin modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Negative mood states are composed of symptoms of depression and anxiety, and by a third factor related to stress, tension and irritability. We sought to clarify the nature of the relationships between the factors by studying twin pairs. METHOD: A total of 503 monozygotic twin pairs completed the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales (DASS), an instrument that assesses symptoms of depression, anxiety and stress-tension. We applied a recently developed twin regression methodology - Inference about Causation from Examination of FAmiliaL CONfounding (ICE FALCON) - to test for evidence consistent with the existence of 'causal' influences between the DASS factors. RESULTS: There was evidence consistent with the stress-tension factor having a causal influence on both the depression (p < 0.0001) and anxiety factors (p = 0.001), and for the depression factor having a causal influence on the anxiety factor (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a critical role for stress-tension in the structure of negative mood states, and that interventions that target it may be particularly effective in reducing depression and anxiety symptoms.

Mould-sensitized adults have lower Th2 cytokines and a higher prevalence of asthma than those sensitized to other aeroallergens.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that specific allergen sensitizations are associated with different allergic diseases which may reflect different underlying immune profiles. We aimed to examine the cytokine profiles of individuals sensitized to eight common aeroallergens. METHODS: We used data from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study a population-based cohort study of 45-year-olds. Serum cytokines (IL-4, IL-5, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, TNF-α) were measured in 1157 subjects using the LINCOplex assays. Participants underwent skin prick testing for house dust mite, cat, grasses and moulds. Multivariable linear regression was used to compare serum cytokine levels between sensitized and nonatopic subjects. RESULTS: The prevalence of allergic sensitization to any aeroallergen was 51% (95% CI 47-54). Being sensitized to any aeroallergen was strongly associated with current asthma (OR = 3.7, 95% CI 2.6-5.3), and being sensitized to any moulds was associated with a very high risk of current asthma (OR = 6.40, 95% CI 4.06-10.1). The geometric mean (GM) levels of Th2 cytokines (IL-4, IL-5 and IL-6) for adults sensitized to Cladosporium were significantly lower than the levels for nonatopic individuals (IL-4 ratio of GMs = 0.25, 95% CI 0.10-0.62, P = 0.003; IL-5 GM = 0.55, 95% CI 0.30-0.99, P = 0.05; and IL-6 GM = 0.50, 95% CI 0.24-1.07, P = 0.07). Individuals sensitized to other aeroallergens all showed elevated Th2 cytokine levels. CONCLUSION: Our study is the first large population-based study to demonstrate reduced Th2 cytokines levels in people sensitized to mould. Underlying biological mechanisms driving allergic inflammatory responses in adults sensitized to moulds may differ from those sensitized to other aeroallergens. These findings suggest that it may be necessary to tailor treatments in individuals sensitized to moulds compared with other aeroallergens in order to optimize outcomes.

Identification of STOML2 as a putative novel asthma risk gene associated with IL6R.

BACKGROUND: Functional variants in the interleukin-6 receptor gene (IL6R) are associated with asthma risk. We hypothesized that genes co-expressed with IL6R might also be regulated by genetic polymorphisms that are associated with asthma risk. The aim of this study was to identify such genes. METHODS: To identify genes whose expression was correlated with that of IL6R, we analyzed gene expression levels generated for 373 human lymphoblastoid cell lines by the Geuvadis consortium and for 38 hematopoietic cell types by the Differentiation Map Portal (DMAP) project. Genes correlated with IL6R were then screened for nearby single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that were significantly associated with both variation in gene expression levels (eSNPs) and asthma risk. RESULTS: We identified 90 genes with expression levels correlated with those of IL6R and that also had a nearby eSNP associated with disease risk in a published asthma GWAS (N = 20 776). For 16 (18%) genes, the association between the eSNP and asthma risk replicated with the same direction of effect in a further independent published asthma GWAS (N = 27 378). Among the top replicated associations (FDR < 0.05) were eSNPs for four known (IL18R1, IL18RAP, BCL6, and STAT6) and one putative novel asthma risk gene, stomatin-like protein 2 (STOML2). The expression of STOML2 was negatively correlated with IL6R, while eSNPs that increased the expression of STOML2 were associated with an increased asthma risk. CONCLUSION: The expression of STOML2, a gene that plays a key role in mitochondrial function and T-cell activation, is associated with both IL-6 signaling and asthma risk.

Multigene testing of moderate-risk genes: be mindful of the missense.

BACKGROUND: Moderate-risk genes have not been extensively studied, and missense substitutions in them are generally returned to patients as variants of uncertain significance lacking clearly defined risk estimates. The fraction of early-onset breast cancer cases carrying moderate-risk genotypes and quantitative methods for flagging variants for further analysis have not been established. METHODS: We evaluated rare missense substitutions identified from a mutation screen of ATM, CHEK2, MRE11A, RAD50, NBN, RAD51, RINT1, XRCC2 and BARD1 in 1297 cases of early-onset breast cancer and 1121 controls via scores from Align-Grantham Variation Grantham Deviation (GVGD), combined annotation dependent depletion (CADD), multivariate analysis of protein polymorphism (MAPP) and PolyPhen-2. We also evaluated subjects by polygenotype from 18 breast cancer risk SNPs. From these analyses, we estimated the fraction of cases and controls that reach a breast cancer OR≥2.5 threshold. RESULTS: Analysis of mutation screening data from the nine genes revealed that 7.5% of cases and 2.4% of controls were carriers of at least one rare variant with an average OR≥2.5. 2.1% of cases and 1.2% of controls had a polygenotype with an average OR≥2.5. CONCLUSIONS: Among early-onset breast cancer cases, 9.6% had a genotype associated with an increased risk sufficient to affect clinical management recommendations. Over two-thirds of variants conferring this level of risk were rare missense substitutions in moderate-risk genes. Placement in the estimated OR≥2.5 group by at least two of these missense analysis programs should be used to prioritise variants for further study. Panel testing often creates more heat than light; quantitative approaches to variant prioritisation and classification may facilitate more efficient clinical classification of variants.

Increased COX-2 expression in epithelial and stromal cells of high mammographic density tissues and in a xenograft model of mammographic density.

Mammographic density (MD) adjusted for age and body mass index is one of the strongest known risk factors for breast cancer. Given the high attributable risk of MD for breast cancer, chemoprevention with a safe and available agent that reduces MD and breast cancer risk would be beneficial. Cox-2 has been implicated in MD-related breast cancer risk, and was increased in stromal cells in high MD tissues in one study. Our study assessed differential Cox-2 expression in epithelial and stromal cells in paired samples of high and low MD human breast tissue, and in a validated xenograft biochamber model of MD. We also examined the effects of endocrine treatment upon Cox-2 expression in high and low MD tissues in the MD xenograft model. Paired high and low MD human breast tissue samples were immunostained for Cox-2, then assessed for differential expression and staining intensity in epithelial and stromal cells. High and low MD human breast tissues were separately maintained in biochambers in mice treated with Tamoxifen, oestrogen or placebo implants, then assessed for percentage Cox-2 staining in epithelial and stromal cells. Percentage Cox-2 staining was greater for both epithelial (p = 0.01) and stromal cells (p < 0.0001) of high compared with low MD breast tissues. In high MD biochamber tissues, percentage Cox-2 staining was greater in stromal cells of oestrogen-treated versus placebo-treated tissues (p = 0.05).

Hi-Plex targeted sequencing is effective using DNA derived from archival dried blood spots.

Many genetic epidemiology resources have collected dried blood spots (predominantly as Guthrie Cards) as an economical and efficient means of archiving sources of DNA, conferring great value to genetic screening methods that are compatible with this medium. We applied Hi-Plex to screen the breast cancer predisposition gene PALB2 in 93 Guthrie Card-derived DNA specimens previously characterized for PALB2 genetic variants via DNA derived from lymphoblastoid cell lines, whole blood, and buffy coat. Of the 93 archival Guthrie Card-derived DNAs, 92 (99%) were processed successfully and sequenced using approximately half of a MiSeq run. From these 92 DNAs, all 59 known variants were detected and no false-positive variant calls were yielded. Fully 98.13% of amplicons (5417/5520) were represented within 15-fold of the median coverage (2786 reads), and 99.98% of amplicons (5519/5520) were represented at a depth of 10 read-pairs or greater. With Hi-Plex, we show for the first time that a High-Plex amplicon-based massively parallel sequencing (MPS) system can be applied effectively to DNA prepared from dried blood spot archival specimens and, as such, can dramatically increase the scopes of both method and resource.

Effects of Tamoxifen and oestrogen on histology and radiographic density in high and low mammographic density human breast tissues maintained in murine tissue engineering chambers.

Mammographic density (MD) is a strong risk factor for breast cancer. It is altered by exogenous endocrine treatments, including hormone replacement therapy and Tamoxifen. Such agents also modify breast cancer (BC) risk. However, the biomolecular basis of how systemic endocrine therapy modifies MD and MD-associated BC risk is poorly understood. This study aims to determine whether our xenograft biochamber model can be used to study the effectiveness of therapies aimed at modulating MD, by examine the effects of Tamoxifen and oestrogen on histologic and radiographic changes in high and low MD tissues maintained within the biochamber model. High and low MD human tissues were precisely sampled under radiographic guidance from prophylactic mastectomy fresh specimens of high-risk women, then inserted into separate vascularized murine biochambers. The murine hosts were concurrently implanted with Tamoxifen, oestrogen or placebo pellets, and the high and low MD biochamber tissues maintained in the murine host environment for 3 months, before the high and low MD biochamber tissues were harvested for histologic and radiographic analyses. The radiographic density of high MD tissue maintained in murine biochambers was decreased in Tamoxifen-treated mice compared to oestrogen-treated mice (p = 0.02). Tamoxifen treatment of high MD tissue in SCID mice led to a decrease in stromal (p = 0.009), and an increase in adipose (p = 0.023) percent areas, compared to placebo-treated mice. No histologic or radiographic differences were observed in low MD biochamber tissue with any treatment. High MD biochamber tissues maintained in mice implanted with Tamoxifen, oestrogen or placebo pellets had dynamic and measurable histologic compositional and radiographic changes. This further validates the dynamic nature of the MD xenograft model, and suggests the biochamber model may be useful for assessing the underlying molecular pathways of Tamoxifen-reduced MD, and in testing of other pharmacologic interventions in a preclinical model of high MD.